It’s a busy session ahead.
The first notable event is Tokyo area inflation for November:
- National-level CPI data for November will follow in about three weeks, it takes longer to gather and collate the national data.
- Tokyo CPI is a sub-index of the national CPI
- It measures the change in prices of goods and services in the Tokyo metropolitan area
- Its considered a leading indicator of national CPI trends because Tokyo is the largest city in Japan and is a major economic hub
- Historically, Tokyo CPI data has been just slightly higher than national Japan CPI data. The cost of living in Tokyo is a touch higher than in most other parts of Japan. Higher rents, for example
All three indicators will come in above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target level. Back on Friday November 24 we had the most recent national CPI reading, which showed core consumer price growth above the BOJ’s 2% target for 19 consecutive months. The Bank of Japan insists inflation is transitory, due to cost-push factors driving it higher, and are waiting for wage growth to decide if demand-pull factors can cement inflation in place in a sustainable and stable manner. Three Bank of Japan policy board members have been in the media this and last week hosing down expectations of any pivot before the Spring wage talks:
BOJ board member Noguchi said only a possibility the 2% inflation target is in sight
- Bank of Japan’s Adachi denies speculation of ending negative interest rates
- BOJ official says yet to see positive wage-inflation cycle – easy policy to remain
These officials were responding to speculation in Japanese media of a change coming:
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The next high-priority item on the docket is the services PMI from China. This is the privately surveyed PMI.
China has two primary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys – the official PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Caixin China PMI published by the media company Caixin and research firm Markit / S&P Global.
- The official PMI survey covers large and state-owned companies, while the Caixin PMI survey covers small and medium-sized enterprises. As a result, the Caixin PMI is considered to be a more reliable indicator of the performance of China’s private sector.
- Another difference between the two surveys is their methodology. The Caixin PMI survey uses a broader sample of companies than the official survey.
- Despite these differences, the two surveys often provide similar readings on China’s manufacturing sector. That was not the case for November, though, with the official manufacturing PMI in deep contraction while the Caixin is not.
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The Reserve Bank of Australia will be along at 2.30pm local time in Sydney with their final meeting for 2023.
- 0330 GMT
- and 2230 US Eastern time (on Monday, 4 December 2023)
Earlier previews:
- RBA’s December decision: cash rate likely to hold, questions arise for future increases
- RBA to keep cash rate unchanged next week – Reuters poll
- This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
- The times in the left-most column are GMT.
- The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.
- I’ve noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity of the little flags can sometimes be confusing.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com. Source