Fed Watch update: Chance of an FOMC June rate cut is sliding lower as data comes in hot

The latest data of note is the sizzling ISM manufacturing index:

It jumped into expansion for the first time since 2022 (check out that link above for the pretty pic of its performance). Production and new orders rose sharply. After the data Treasury yields climbed:

Strong economy, sticky inflation, its little wonder Fed officials are beginning to line up behind higher for longer and later rate cuts. These posts from me last week:

And markets are beginning to be swayed:

The CME’s FedWatch tool shows the probability of a June rate cut is sliding lower. I can;t believe its still above 50%, but give it a couple of days and it will be (IMO):

ps. As a counterpoint ex-Fed Clarida says there’s still a chance:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com. Source