GBP traders – eyes on UK inflation data due Wednesday – preview

Justin posted a comprehensive preview of the UK CPI data to come for June here:

Adding in some snippets from about the place.


  • Base effects and another decline in petrol prices will likely pull down headline inflation to 8.1% YoY – just 0.2ppts above the MPC’s forecast. That said, we expect core inflation to remain at 7.1% YoY due to continued elevated services momentum.
  • A material surprise on this release will determine the size of August’s Bank Rate hike.

Scotia expects that UK core CPI inflation is expected to remain near the highest reading since the early 1990s.


  • CPI inflation in June should remain elevated as core spending remains strong supporting the case for strong monetary action ahead.

Deutsche Bank have an eye on a bigger impact:

  • UK inflation on Wednesday has the potential to be a global bond mover given recent prints

The data is due at 0600 GMT, which 7am in London and 0200 US Eastern time.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at Source