Here’s how to pick a number for USD/JPY intervention (& also how intervention will happen)

Pick a number continues for where Japan’s Ministry of Finance is expected to have the Bank of Japan intervene to support the yen.

152.00 was being widely touted as the line in the sand but the winds of US CPI blew that sand away.

Rabobank say the MoF don’t want a move to 155 and forecast:

  • 150 and 148 in 1 and 3 month horizons

Bank of America says a delay in easing from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) brings the risk of USD/JPY rising to 160, and add that if USD/JPY moves to 155 without some sort of catalyst that would prompt intervention.

Greg posted:

  • Nomura is saying that: despite a notably covered home from officials since late March as the Yen hovered above the 152 level, “there is no says that they are going to intervene anytime soon”
  • Mitsubishi Trust in banking added: The JPY dropped below 152 all at once, so intervention could well, at any time

By all means go ahead and play the pick a number game if you wish. An alternative is to be aware of what to watch for for signs of intervention becoming imminent. I have a guide at these posts here:

The TL;DR right now is that we are not yet close.

If you are curious about the mechanics of intervention and why you should be watching the MoF instead of the BOj:

  • The Ministry of Finance (MOF) in Japan is responsible for formulating foreign exchange policy in the country, while the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is responsible for executing such policies, particularly in terms of FX intervention.
  • The MOF can decide to intervene in the FX market if it believes (in the current situation) the yen is too weak. Once the MOF decides to intervene, it gives instructions to the BOJ. The BOJ then conducts operations in the FX market by (in current circumstances) buying yen. The Foreign Exchange Fund Special Account (FEFSA), which falls under the jurisdiction of the MOF, is used for interventions. You will note that in the current situation, where the BOJ would buy yen, they will dip into USD reserves to fund the other side of the trade, buying USD (or other currencies if needed).
  • The BOJ’s operations are usually conducted through commercial banks that deal in the foreign exchange market. They may be spot transactions, or forward transactions that are set to occur at a future date. Note that while the MOF has the ultimate authority to decide when to intervene, it does so in close consultation with the BOJ. The BOJ provides expertise and advice on monetary and financial market conditions, which can influence the MOF’s decision. This collaboration reflects the balance between the roles of the two entities: the MOF as the government’s chief financial and economic advisor, and the BOJ as the country’s central bank that maintains stability in the financial system.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at Source