JP Morgan analyst shrugs off the US CPI data: really not much going on

JPMorgan Asset Management Chief Global Strategist David Kelly was interviewed (Bloomberg TV) after the US CPI report.

The data is here ICYMI:

US September CPI +3.7% y/y versus +3.6% y/y expected


JPMAM analyst Kelly:

  • the CPI, I think it was close to … exactly on expectations
  • the one thing that seemed to be stronger than people had expected was hotels … that was one of the things that
    pushed up shelter costs

And if you take that as there’s there’s
really not much else going on here

  • Meanwhile, we’re looking very closely at
    the price of gasoline, because what’s happening is even though crude oil
    prices are holding in at a fairly high levels, we’ve seen refiner margins come
    crashing down. And so the price of a gallon of gasoline
    is now $0.19 lower than it was a month ago.
    And so I think that bodes well for for a better reading for October CPI.
  • So right now, I think we’re still on track … for CPI headline being a 2% or
    less in the fourth quarter of next year… that’s one year ahead of the Fed’s target.
    And that’s, you know, so overall, this report makes me I’m still very
    optimistic that inflation is coming down.

I posted earlier on pricing edging higher for a December FOMC rate hike:

As a ps. RBC see broad inflation pressure:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at Source