JP Morgan on the Federal Reserve – slow path of rate cuts likely to begin in Spring 2024

Dow Jones / Market Watch carry remarks from chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management Kelly who says the economy in the US doing very well right now and that inflation “can absolutely come down without a recession.”

On his rate cut outlook, not this year:

  • “Unless the economy cracks in some way, certainly we don’t get a rate cut this year”
  • anticipates the Fed might begin to slowly reduce rates in the spring of 2024 should inflation continue easing toward 2%
  • Quicker rate cuts will probably come if the labor market began “flashing an orange light that we’re about to head into a recession” with back-to-back monthly losses in jobs in nonfarm payroll employment reports.

ps. The next nonfarm payroll employment report is due on Friday September 1.

We’ll hear from Federal Reserve Chair Powell on Friday, speaking at Jackson Hole.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at Source