It is FOMC day with the expectation for no change in policy by the US central bank. The focus will be on the details of the dot plot and central tendencies along with the statement in the Q&A from Chair Powell. Traders can have their bias, but with the Fed thought to be a crossroads sooner, the focus will be on what they think hundred and
As a result, for traders it is important to understand the key technical levels in play that would shift the bias more to the upside or shift the bias more to the downside dependent on the market’s interpretation of all “the stuff” and reactions from what is said and implied by statements, comments, dot plots, central tendencies, etc.
In this video, I outline the key levels in play for the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD – so you can plan your trade.
EURUSD: The EURUSD is trading between its 100-hour moving average and 200 hour moving average (a neutral area). The 100-hour moving average comes in at 1.06735. The higher 200-hour moving average comes in a 1.0702. Moving outside of those ranges would tilt the bias in the direction of the break. A move higher would look toward the high price from yesterday at 1.0718 followed by the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the end of August hgh at 1.0751. On the downside, a move below the 100-hour moving average 1.0673 would open the door for a push toward the low price from last week at 1.0631, and the end of May 2023 low near 1.0635. Will below that level and the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the 2022 low comes in at 1.0610. Your mark that level is a key technical level going forward that if broken would open the door for a run toward the 1.0500 level.
USDJPY: The USDJPY moved to a new high going back to November 2022 in trading today, with a move above the high price from last week at 147.94. That break failed, however, and currently trades back below the high from last week at 147.94. It would take a move back above that level to increase a bullish bias going forward. Move love it in the high from today at 148.16 opens the door to further upside momentum. On the downside, the 100-hour moving average has held support going back to the end of last week and to trading yesterday. That moving average currently comes in at 147.681. Move below it and then the 200-hour moving average at 147.367 opens the door for a rotation down toward the 147.00 area where the price formed a floor on September 12th,13th, and 14th before moving higher.
GBPUSD: The GBPUSD price action is dealing with lower inflation data today which sent the pair lower, and the BOE rate decision tomorrow where expectations are now more toward 50-50 vs. a hike of 25 basis points. The price action today was to the downside after the CPI with the price reaching a new low going back to the end of May, but the price has since rebounded and trades above the lows from Monday and Tuesday near 1.23684. The current price is trading at 1.2374. On the top side, the 100-hour moving average comes in at 1.23956. Moving above that level and staying above that level would have traders focus on the 200-day moving average of 1.24339. The price fell below that moving average last Wednesday and has been able to close below that level since that day. The last time the price traded below the 200-day moving average was back in March when the price closed below that moving average for 2 days before restarting a bullish trend to the upside.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Source