Morgan Stanley projects a higher US dollar through to the end of the year

Morgan Stanley are forecasting no change to the Fed Funds rate at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting 0- statement due on November 1.

No change is an overwhelming consensus and market expectation also.

MS main points:

  • Fed is expected to acknowledge recent improvement in economic activity
  • Peak rate is in, see an extended hold into 2024
  • Expect a higher US dollar into the end of 2023, citing an even wider yield differential with other FX, and in particular declining sentiment in the eurozone vs. the US
  • Wary of long positioning in the USD though, say with the Fed on hold now there is less space for central bank policy expectations to shift in favour of the dollar

USD index weekly candles

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at Source