US:
- The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting.
- The macroeconomic projections were revised higher,
and the Dot Plot showed that the FOMC still expects another rate hike by the
end of the year with less rate cuts projected in 2024. - Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed their data dependency but added that
they will proceed carefully. - The US CPI beat expectations on the headline
figures, but the core measures came in line with forecasts and the market’s
pricing barely changed. - The labour market remains pretty resilient as seen once again last
week with the beat inJobless Claims, although continuing claims missed for a second
time in a row. - The US Retail Sales last week beat expectations by a big
margin with positive revisions to the prior figures, suggesting the consumers’
spending remains resilient. - Fed Chair Powelland other FOMC members continue to highlight the rise in long term yields as doing
the job for the Fed and therefore they are expected to keep rates steady in
November as well. - The market doesn’t expect the Fed to hike anymore.
New Zealand:
- The RBNZ kept its official cash rate
unchanged while
stating that demand growth continues to ease and it’s expected to decline
further with monetary conditions remaining restrictive. - The New Zealand inflation data last week missed expectations
supporting the RBNZ’s stance. - The latest employment data surprised to the upside.
- The Manufacturing PMI continues to slide further into
contraction, but the Services PMI jumped back into expansion. - The RBNZ is expected to keep the
cash rate steady at the next meeting.
NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that the NZDUSD pair
is massively diverging with the
MACD which is
generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, we got a pullback into the broken support turned resistance which
might end up being a classic “break and retest” pattern. If the price continues
higher and breaks above the resistance though, we will get a confirmation of a
reversal and the NZDUSD pair might rally all the way back to the trendline.
NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the recent
break above the minor trendline and the moving averages
crossover switched the bias more to the upside. This might be just a complex
correction though and the sellers are likely to step in at the resistance with a
defined risk above the level to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers,
on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to pile in and
start targeting the major trendline around the 0.5980 level.
NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we’ve
been diverging with the MACD for quite some time. The first target of the
divergence, in case the price breaks above the resistance, is the swing high
around the 0.5925 level. A lot will depend on how the price reacts to the key
resistance. A break below the recent higher low around the 0.5838 level should
change the market structure on this timeframe back to bearish and likely
increase the downside momentum leading to a drop to new lows.
Upcoming Events
Today we will get the latest US PMIs where strong
figures should support the greenback, while weak readings are a bit more
complicated as the USD might weaken due to falling Treasury yields but also
strengthen due to recessionary fears. On Thursday, we will see the US Jobless
Claims figures, while on Friday we get the US PCE report which is not expected
to change anything for the Fed at this time.
This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com. Source