RBA Statement says rates may need to go higher, full impact of rises so far not yet felt

The Reserve Bank of Australia Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP).

Headlines via Reuters:

  • Some further tightening may be required
  • Board considered
    raising rates at August meeting, decided stronger case was to hold
  • Policy has been
    tightened significantly, full impact has yet to be felt
  • Board mindful of
    lags in policy, painful financial squeeze on some households
  • Board keen to
    preserve gains made in labour market
  • Tightening could
    provide some further insurance against upside inflation risks

RBA trims GDP growth
and inflation forecasts for end 2023, most others little changed

  • Forecasts GDP end
    2023 0.9%, end 2024 1.6%, end 2025 2.3%
  • Forecasts CPI at end
    2023 4.1%, end 2024 3.3%, end 2025 2.8%
  • Forecasts
    unemployment end 2023 3.9%, end 2024 4.4%, end 2025 4.5%,

Full text is here:

What’s the SoMP?

The RBA’s Statement on Monetary Policy:

  • It outlines the bank’s views on domestic and international economic conditions.
  • also provides an analysis of the bank’s policy decisions and an outlook for inflation and output growth.
  • published quarterly
  • It typically includes:
    • An overview of the global and domestic economic situation, which incorporates various factors such as growth, inflation, employment, and monetary and fiscal policies of key countries.
    • Information about financial markets, which details changes in asset prices, exchange rates, and monetary policy settings worldwide.
    • Domestic economic conditions, which provides a comprehensive analysis of key indicators including GDP, consumer spending, business investments, the labor market, and housing market.
    • Forecasts for domestic economic activity and inflation, typically for a period of two years ahead. And an assessment of the balance of risks surrounding these forecasts.

The hiking cycle began in May 2022 and there are thoughts it may be complete. Some are still tipping another hike though, likely in November.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com. Source