RBNZ policy decision due today – surprise tightening to 5.75% is a risk (but a small one)

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy announcement is due at 0100 GMT, 2100 US Eastern time.

I posted a preview from ANZ earlier:

Indeed, a ‘hawkish hold’ is widely expected.


  • We’re expecting déjà vu, with no change in policy nor tone from the August update.
  • The cash rate is expected to be left untouched (5.50%) and the statement will reaffirm the need to keep rates restrictive.
  • The RBNZ’s job: stabilise inflation.


  • We think the RBNZ will keep the OCR at 5.50% at its October review.
  • We expect the RBNZ to retain the tightening bias expressed in the August Statement and will aim to retain maximum flexibility to tighten (or not) in November should data warrant.
  • A surprise tightening to 5.75% is a risk, but we think no more than a 10-20% chance.


This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com. Source