The USDJPY extended to a new week high and in the process also moved above the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the February high. That level comes in at 148.157.
The subsequent run-up on the break higher next tested its falling 200-hour moving average at 148.325. Sellers against that level on the first look. The price has since rotated back below the 38.2% retracement.
The price currently trades at 148.168 as buyers and seller become more balanced around the 30.2% retracement/200 hour moving average.
For buyers looking for more upside, it would take a move above the 200-hour moving average to give more confidence.
Fundamentally, the story that the Bank of Japan was not near tightening (they meet next week), all things equal would give traders confidence to push higher.
Conversely, if fundamentally a turning from the Bank of Japan is more imminent this is the area to sell.
Either way, the 200-hour moving average will be a key barometer for both buyers and sellers.
Of note today, is the low for the day stalled just ahead of its 100-day moving average at 147.405. In between the 100 and 200-hour moving averages is the 100-day moving average.
That 100 day moving average currently comes in at 147.70, and would be a target on the downside on more selling.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Source