As the North American session begins, the EUR is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest. The USD is mostly higher in the morning snapshot. Admittedly, the major currencies are largely scrunched together. The order can change quickly.
On Friday, the US jobs report came out stronger than expected. The Unemployment rate was lower, the NFP data was stronger for the month, the wages were higher. However, the focus quickly shifted to another view. There was a weird shift in the participation rate which lower the unemployment rate, the prior 2-months of NFP were revised lower by -71K, the ADP report on wages the day before was showing a slowing of wages over time, not the increases seen in the BLS data. I also heard rumblings that the data is becoming more unreliable as reliability on surveys can be difficult. Who picks up the phone from the BLS or the US government? Who picks up the phone from someone they don’t know?
Later on Friday, the ISM services index came in much weaker than expected at 50.6 vs 52.5 estimate, with employment plunging to 43.3 – the lowest since July 2020 as Covid spread. New orders fell to 52.8 vs 56.1 estimate. That contradicted any thoughts of strength from the US jobs report.
Over the weekend, the FAA grounded some Max 737 planes as a result of the blowout of the part of a plane in midair. Shares of Boeing are down about -$20 or -7.9% as a result. The
Positive news out of Washington was that the Dems and GOP reached a consensus to establish the 2024 fiscal year’s federal spending cap at around $1.66 trillion. This agreement – thanks to “substantial compromises” – will facilitate necessary legislative measures. The agreed-upon spending plan still requires approval from both the House and the Senate, followed by President Joe Biden’s signature to become law (is expected)
Crude oil prices are moving lower to start the week after Saudi Arabia cut prices for Asian crude exports. Focus returns to slower global demand. Saudi Arabia at the price to the lowest level in 27 months.
Atlanta Fed president Bostic speaks at 12 PM ET today. Consumer credit will be released at 3 PM.
This week in the US focus will be on CPI on Thursday with expectations of 0.2% for the month/month headline. The Core measure is also expected at 0.2%.. The YoY headline is expected to come in at 3.2% vs 3.1% last month. A year ago, the MoM fell -0.1%. That will make a decline in the YoY difficult this month. However, the next 2 months will have gains of 0.5% and 0.4% roll off which should lead to a further decline in the YoY measures.
A snapshot of the markets as the North American session begins currently shows:
- Crude oil is trading down $2.13 or -2.89% at $71.68. At this time Friday, the price was at $72.79
- Gold is trading down $25.02 or -1.22% at $2020.50. At this time Friday, it was trading at $2039.31
- Silver is trading down $-0.29 or -1.29% at $22.86. At this time Friday, it was trading at $23.00
- Bitcoin traded at $44,679. At this time Friday, the price was trading at $43,996. The high price today extended to $45,200. The price closed on Friday at $44,184
In the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are trading mixed after snapping 9-week winning streaks last week:
- Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a decline of -145 points. On Friday, the index rose 25.77 points or 0.07%
- S&P futures are implying a decline of -2.9 points. On Friday, the index rose 8.54 points or 0.18%
- Nasdaq futures are implying a gain of 5.52 points. On Friday,, the index rose 13.77 points or 0.09%
In the European equity markets, the major indices are all trading lower:
- German DAX, 0.15%. On Friday the index fell -0.14%
- France CAC – 0.03%. On Friday, the index fell -0.40%
- UK FTSE 100 -0.22%. On Friday, the index fell -0.43%
- Spain’s Ibex -0.05%. On Friday, the index fell -0.18%.
- Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.16% (delayed by 10 minutes).
Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were mostly lower:
- Japan’s Nikkei 225, +0.27%
- China’s Shanghai composite index , -1.42%
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index, -1.88%
- Australia S&P/ASX, -0.50%
Looking at the US debt market, yields are trading marginally higher:
- 2-year yield 4.401% +1.1 basis point. Yesterday at this time, the yield was at 4.412%
- 5-year yield 4.029% +2.2 basis points. Yesterday at this time, the yield was at 4.020%
- 10-year yield 4.062% +2.1 basis points. Yesterday at this time, the yield was at 4.04%
- 30-year yield 4.218% +1.9 basis points. Yesterday at this time, the yield was at 4.190%
- The 2-10 year spread is at -34.1 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -37.2 basis points
- The 2-30 year spread is at -18.4 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -22.3 basis points
In the European debt market, the benchmark 10-year yields are higher:
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Source